Can the Church save Abazovic’s Government?

These parties, together with Abazovic’s URA Movement, have been in power after the 2020 elections, but after a year and a half, due to political disagreements, they have been voted no-confidence – precisely by the votes of the URA, and the leader of the Democrats, Aleksa Bečič, has been dismissed from the post of Speaker of the Assembly of Montenegro.

The political analyst from Podgorica, Zlatko Vujovic, believes that the Democrats will have a key influence on the further political fate of the Abazovic Government, which has been left without majority support in the Assembly.

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) have stopped supporting him, after the Government of Abazovic, on July 8, approved the text of the Basic Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church.

This agreement, which regulates relations between the state and the Church, has been said to threaten the interests of Montenegro.

“The fall of the current Government may slow down Montenegro’s path towards the European Union, but we cannot tolerate the neglect of national interests”, said the chairman of the DPS, Millo Djukanovic, at the same time the president of Montenegro, on July 11 .

However, the political bloc that voted for Abazović’s Government does not have enough MPs to dismiss him.

The Democrats and the DF, despite all the criticism and resistance to the minority Government, have not yet explicitly declared whether they will vote for the dismissal of the Government or not.

Three scenarios and the consequences

Vujovic tells Radio Free Europe’s Balkan Service that there are at least three scenarios for the fate of Abazovic’s Government.

One is the vote of no confidence in the Government.

In this case, Vujovic says, the parties interested in overthrowing the Government would have to secure the support of Becic’s Democrats.

“The most realistic option is for the Democrats or someone else from the opposition to secure the votes for the dismissal of Abazovic’s Government and, after that, it will be decided whether the current Government will be allowed to carry out the electoral process or a new government will be formed,” Vujovic says. .

But, he adds that the Government will be able to survive politically, if its salvation is in the interest of the Serbian Orthodox Church. He also points out the close relations of the Democrats with the Church.

“If it happens that they [Kisha Ortodokse Serbe] exert influence on the Democrats – to whom the overthrow of Abazovic is convenient – then the current prime minister can hope for the continuation of his mandate. Otherwise, the dismissal of Abazovic and his Government awaits us”.

“Therefore, the key factor that can save Dritan Abazovic’s Government is the Serbian Orthodox Church, through its influence on the Democrats,” says Vujovic.

Abazovic’s government approved the Basic Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church on July 8 – after which fierce criticism followed.

“The government has abandoned the European integration agenda and hastily, irresponsibly and without consulting experts, has made an agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church, causing incalculable damage to the state interests of Montenegro”, said the DPS- here.

Abazovic has said that it will be seen “what is the attitude of the majority of deputies”, implying that the DPS will not be able to secure the majority of 41 deputies for the dismissal of his Government.

Although they are harsh critics of Prime Minister Abazović and have protested on several occasions against his Government, the Democrats have previously supported the signing of the Basic Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church.

However, the civil sector criticizes the Government of Abazovic for, as they say, ignorance.

Daliborka Ularevič, from the Center for Civic Education, says that Abazović and the ministers are “hermetically closed” to all the arguments offered by the NGO sector.

Ularević says that Abazović’s warning that he will organize consultations with the non-governmental sector and experts on the agreement that has already been approved, is an “insult to logic”.

On July 11, the Center for Civic Education presented a public opinion poll, which revealed that only 11 percent of citizens were interested in signing the Basic Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church.

Vujović, on the other hand, says that there are two other scenarios, but less likely.

One, according to him, is the redefining of relations within the current ruling majority, which, he says, would mean the withdrawal of Abazović. But, Vujovic does not believe that Abazovic would accept this.

The second is the formation of a new coalition between DF, Democrats and URA.

“The formation of a new majority from the old partners is probably the least possible scenario, because it does not solve the issue of European integration and means the entry of the DF into the Government – which our Western partners have opposed so far”, says Vujovic.

Abazovic – whose government is supported by Western partners, the European Union and the United States of America – has not received clear support from Brussels and Washington for the approval of the Framework Agreement.

In addition, the ambassador of the Czech Republic in Montenegro, Janina Hrebickova – whose country currently presides over the European Union – has said that from the point of view of Brussels, the agreement with the Church is not a priority for the European integration of Montenegro.

Are new elections an option?

DPS and SDP also have the opportunity to take an initiative to shorten the mandate of the Assembly, which would then lead to extraordinary elections.

Even for this initiative – as in the case of no confidence in the Government – in addition to the votes of the minority parties, which it is not known if they have, they need at least one vote from the ranks of the parties gathered around the pro-Russian Democratic Front or the Democrats.

Although these parties, after the fall of the previous Government, in April of this year, have requested new elections – considering them as a more correct option than the election of the minority Government of Abazovic – they currently do not want to declare whether they will to support or not the shortening of the mandate of the Assembly.

Nor is the position of the minority parties on this issue clear.

But another obstacle on the way to extraordinary elections is the situation in the Constitutional Court.

It guarantees the protection of voting rights and without a functional Constitutional Court, there will be no institutional protection in case the electoral rights of citizens are violated.

The Constitutional Court of Montenegro currently has four judges and one will soon have his term expired.

“The Constitutional Court will soon have only three members. This is not enough, because in order to make decisions about the elections, there must be at least four”, says Vujovic.

For this reason, he adds, it is currently not possible to talk about scheduling extraordinary parliamentary elections.

The government of Dritan Abazovic was elected on April 28 of this year with the votes of DPS, URA, SDP, the pro-Serbian Socialist People’s Party and the parties of minority peoples. Radio Free Europe

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