Differences between Ukraine and NATO over the Russian threat

Washington and London have warned that the chances are high that Russian President Putin will order an invasion of Ukraine. US President Joe Biden has warned for weeks about the “high possibility” of a Russian invasion of Ukraine next month, and he reiterated this Thursday in a telephone conversation with Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the House said in a statement. of White.

British Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace says he “He is not optimistic” that a Russian incursion into Ukraine could be stopped. He told the BBC during his visit to Berlin said there was still “a chance” that an invasion of Ukraine would be stopped, but added: “I am not optimistic.”

Russia denies it is preparing to launch a major offensive against Ukraine, accusing Western powers of spreading panic. The Kremlin insists that more than 100,000 troops it has deployed along Ukraine’s borders are simply taking part in a military exercise.

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy suspects that Moscow will launch an attack to occupy his country. He says Russia is more likely to continue to develop the highly sophisticated and hybrid form of psychological warfare it has used against Ukraine and Europe with increasing intensity over the past decade.

The Ukrainian president has called for calm ahead of Wednesday’s meeting between officials from Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France – known as the “Normandy format” – to discuss once again the issue of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, almost halfway through. which was occupied in 2014 by Russian soldiers and local armed insurgents.

Asked at a news conference on Friday by foreign media about the various assessments and a possible rift with President Biden, Mr Zelenskiy mentioned his concerns about the Ukrainian economy, saying that discussions on an imminent invasion were affecting negatively to the country’s economy. “For me, the issue of the possible escalation of the situation is as worrying as what the United States and other partners have expressed.” he said.

But he complained that the media was giving the impression that we had deployed the army on the streets, which is not true. And he said Ukraine “does not need this panic” because it is hurting the economy.

The Ukrainian leader expressed his displeasure last week over the decision of the United States, Britain, Canada and Australia to evacuate staff from their embassies in Kiev. Mr Zelenskiy and his aides expressed disappointment, saying the withdrawal of some of the diplomatic staff was premature.

An official told VOA that the evacuations undermined efforts to allay the fears of ordinary Ukrainians. The United States and Britain have also told their nationals to leave Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian officials, President Zelenskiy has discussed the issue of evacuations with US officials, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, saying the withdrawal is an “excessive reaction” and something Russia could use to sow fear and destabilize the country.

However, in addition to concerns about the economy and morale of Ukrainians, Kiev seems to disagree with Washington and London’s assessments of Mr Putin’s strategy, as well as how close he is in trying to complete the necessary military reinforcements to launch an attack on the occupation of Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Russia does not have enough troops to carry out a full-scale invasion. He told reporters this week, “The number of Russian troops gathered along the border with Ukraine and the occupied territories of Ukraine is large, it poses a threat to Ukraine, a direct threat to Ukraine, however, at the moment, their number is not enough for an offensive. “against Ukraine along the entire Ukrainian border.”

Some independent Ukrainian analysts agree with Kiev’s assessment that a full-scale invasion is unlikely to occur. “I do not believe there will be a full-scale military invasion,” said Taras Kuzio, a London-based analyst at Henry Jackson Society and a professor at Kiev University’s Mohyla National Academy.

“From this point of view, I agree with the Ukrainian military officials.” he said in a recent televised debate in Britain. “There are not enough troops there. Ukraine is a large territory. It has the third largest army in Europe. And if you are working on a three-to-one ratio of invading versus defensive armies, which is the number you need to be successful, then Russia will need 500,000 to 600,000 troops to defeat Ukraine. It does not have that figure and it is not foreseen to have it “, he said.

Expert Kuzio believes that Russia is more likely to conduct an incursion around the Black Sea coast and expand the territory it controls in the Donbas region.

Ukrainian officials privately admit that they are facing a difficult situation. They need Western help and military equipment, from anti-tank missiles to surface-to-air missiles, and they need the West to be strong, to face Mr. Putin, and to prevent Russia from any kind of limited attack. or wide. But they do not want to talk about the threat, destroy their economy and cause panic among their residents. It’s a good line they are following, some officials told VOA.

Western officials say they should be prepared for any eventuality and do not want to be unprepared, as happened in 2014 when Russia annexed the Ukrainian Peninsula of Crimea. Russia then encouraged and aided armed groups to occupy part of the Donbas in the wake of a popular uprising that toppled Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, an ally of Mr Putin.

That is why they say that NATO’s military presence in Eastern Europe, in NATO’s neighboring countries, should be increased and everyone should understand that this is a serious situation. “Putin is unpredictable and would take advantage of any gaps and weaknesses he could dictate,” a senior NATO official told VOA.

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