Finland and Sweden, beginning of NATO membership?

From the Cold War to the annexation of Crimea in 2014, nothing has so far been able to persuade Finland and Sweden to join the Western NATO military alliance – thus relinquishing their military independence. Finland in particular did not want to irritate its Russian neighbors and instead preferred to be a kind of bridge builder between East and West, as for example during the summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in Helsinki in 2018.

But in recent years, relations between the two countries and NATO have strengthened, even without being member states. At the end of March, Sweden and Finland took part in a major NATO exercise in Norway. Especially in Finland, there is a growing awareness that this country is very vulnerable due to its border of about 1300 km with Russia. But the war in Ukraine now shows even more clearly to northern Europeans: without NATO membership, you can not expect full military support from other Western countries in the event of an emergency.

Finland’s border with Russia

The Finnish Left Party is still holding back

In early January, polls showed that 30 percent of Finns were in favor of NATO membership. At the end of March, that figure was over 60 percent. The desire for protection from Russia’s neighbor has grown since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. The political atmosphere is also changing: some center-right and right-wing populist parties have long been open to NATO membership. Last weekend, the second largest government party, the Center Party, paved the way after opposing NATO membership. Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats and the Greens coalition partner will also be positioning in the coming weeks.

As of today, the Finnish government will present a report on foreign and security policy – it is unclear to what extent it will take a detailed position on the NATO issue. However, many Finnish political experts expect the debate to be more about “when” than “if” in terms of applying for membership. Finnish President Sauli Niinistö also expects a “large parliamentary majority” in favor of membership.

But the ruling left party is still holding back. The party’s MP, Katja Hänninen, told Finnish radio station Yle: “Finland’s military independence has given us an important role as mediators in the crisis. We have an excellent will to defend our country and our functioning army.”

World War II Monument in Helsinki

The Swedish opposition is putting pressure

In Sweden, many people are traditionally proud of their military independence. For more than 200 years, the country has not been directly involved in any war. This neutrality allowed Sweden to escape the world wars of the 20th century. Why risk getting involved in a conflict today, critics say.

But as with Sweden’s neighbors, the atmosphere has changed recently: shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine, a poll showed that almost half of Swedes were in favor of the country’s NATO membership and that just over a quarter were clearly against him.

However, here the political situation is somewhat more complicated. Because in the fall, general elections will take place – and the NATO issue has become an increasingly important campaign issue in recent weeks. The ruling Social Democrats’s prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, have traditionally opposed NATO membership. Conservative parties are using this to put pressure on the government in the ongoing election campaign. Opposition leader Ulf Kristersson has indicated he will apply for membership in the event of an election victory. Recently, even the right-wing populist Swedish Democrats have signaled that they will eventually support NATO membership. Thus in the Swedish parliament there would be a majority in favor of membership.

Concern about the Russian reaction

The situation, however, would not be without risks for both states. MP Juha Mäenpää, from the Finnish populist right-wing party The Finns, for example, thinks an application for membership would only worsen already strained relations with Russia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently said that Finland and Sweden’s membership in NATO would not bring stability to Europe. NATO is a “directed instrument of confrontation,” he said. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also threatened “serious military and political consequences” in late February.

Finnish foreign policy expert Charly Salonius-Pasternak told Finnish radio that two reactions were possible from Moscow: cyber-attacks against the authorities – or Russia sending refugees from other countries across the Finnish border to exert pressure. Last Friday, the Finnish Ministry of Defense and Foreign Affairs was the target of a cyber attack, the perpetrator of which has not yet been identified./DW

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