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The war in Ukraine cannot leave Beijing indifferent. Because its effects have long been felt in China, thinks Alexander Görlach.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry calls “fake news” reports in the American media that Russia has asked Beijing to send weapons for war to Ukraine. The reports surfaced Monday night, before representatives from Washington and Beijing met in Rome to discuss the situation in Ukraine. The information has increased the pressure on the People’s Republic to act as a mediator to end Putin’s war.
In fact, China has a special interest in ending the war quickly. Because the economic effects of the occupation of Ukraine have long reached this country. The People’s Republic imports large quantities of grain from Ukraine, as well as from Russia. As a result of the war, prices have risen to such an extent that incumbent Xi Jinping has had to openly say: China will become independent of foreign imports.
Extreme poverty
Self-supply has long been the goal of the communist rulers, who are following a nationalist course within the country, to which the importation of basic livelihood goods does not suit them. In addition, a number of countries, including the US and Japan, have begun to separate their economies from that of China, so as not to depend on the Beijing dictatorship.
Around 82 million Chinese live on $ 1 a day in Xi Empire. Price increases like the current ones could turn their already precarious situation into a hopeless situation. The leadership of the People’s Republic announced last year that extreme poverty in the country had been officially overcome. The World Bank, on the other hand, calculated that Beijing had a different methodology than it needed to calculate poverty.
Real poverty in China is likely to be significantly higher than officially stated. In addition, the memory of the time of famine is still fresh. Under Mao Zedong, whom Xi Jinping tries to imitate in everything, the country experienced a long period of famine for bread, between 1959 and 1961. As many as 76 million people are said to have fallen victim to Mao’s ideological mismanagement.
Risk of revolt due to poverty
Xi Jinping wants to be elected lifelong secretary general at the party’s 20th congress in November. To prevent dictatorial excesses as in Mao’s time, a maximum of two five-year terms in the most important posts have been allowed since the 1980s. For the presidency this limit has already been removed from the constitution. Xi can lead the country again like Mao.
A hunger revolt by the poor is one of the few scenarios that could prevent Xi from realizing his ideas. The Der SPIEGEL newspaper recently revealed that the Chinese leadership is pressuring the United Nations not to publish a report warning of starvation deaths as a result of Putin’s aggression and war against Ukraine.
Pressure on Beijing
In early February, the Chinese leader boasted of his close friendship with Putin and announced that he wanted to work closely with Russia on crucial areas such as space travel and Internet control. Recently, Beijing has announced that Russia will remain “the most important strategic partner of the People’s Republic.”
That is why the world community is putting a lot of pressure on Beijing to intervene in Moscow over the war in Ukraine. But Beijing is not looking for this big scene at all. This would draw the attention of the people in China, to the numerous human rights violations by Rule Xi, especially the genocide against the Uighurs. The world would also critically view an intermediary China, whose leader Xi has consistently threatened the annexation and occupation of free and democratic Taiwan.
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Mission Impossible
Since the beginning of the Russian aggression in Ukraine, Beijing has tried to make a policy difficult to implement. Beijing does not condemn Russia’s war, but at the same time calls on the parties to talk. Beijing does not support free world sanctions against Russia, but at the same time it does not support Moscow economically either. The refusal of military aid, which should not be called that, is now going in the same direction. Instead, China claims that Russia never made a request for help.
Wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine cover up to 10 percent of China’s needs, according to a Wall Street Journal report. But the war also has consequences for the production of fertilizers, sunflower oil and soybeans, which are also exported to the People’s Republic. Soybeans are urgently needed for keeping animals. Therefore, meat prices in China are expected to rise significantly.
Necessary action
A Chinese saying is 大鱼大肉 – “lots of fish, lots of meat”, which means that a good meal should contain a lot of both. If you can serve accordingly, you will be admired by the guests. But if the war and aggression against Ukraine, which has not yet been condemned by China continues, the space of the People’s Republic will narrow and Xi’s chances of realizing his dream of unlimited and eternal rule will diminish.
Therefore, Beijing must act. Xi must mediate in the conflict so that China does not feel its effects even more. He and his leadership want to avoid at all costs a direct confrontation with the United States. Because the People’s Republic would lose the war against the US, in which the Kremlin could include Beijing.
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