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The United States is the target of thousands of daily cyberattacks, many of which originate in Russia.
If tensions between Washington and Moscow escalate further over the war in Ukraine, experts worry that Russian President Vladimir Putin would order a frontal cyber attack to destroy vital US infrastructure.
Lawmaker Mike Gallagher thinks that “if the situation escalates, we will see Russian cyber attacks on vital infrastructure.”
This fear is shared by other experts.
“Cyber (attack) can be even more terrifying than traditional weapons.” says Nicholas Chaillan, former chief of communications at the U.S. Air Force.
But how prepared is the United States for a possible cyber attack? The reality is more complicated.
“The United States is leading the way in terms of cyber-offensive,” he said. So we have very good offensive capabilities in cybernetics. But our defense capabilities are pretty weak. I call them kindergarten level “, says Mr. Chaillan.
He was born in France and as a successful entrepreneur and coder, joined the US government in 2016 to help fight cybercrime internationally. Since then, he has been left frustrated by the government’s ability to protect its cyber systems.
The situation in some private companies, which support America’s vital infrastructure, is not much better, he says.
“Many of these companies allow you to access their systems via the internet, as they do not have enough local experts to do the maintenance. “Therefore, they virtually connect the systems to each other, which practically opens the doors to massive cyber threats.” says Mr. Chaillan.
He recalls the 2021 cyber attack on the Colonial Pipeline firm, which distributes fuel to America through a pipeline system. Since the attack, half of the east coast of the United States has been left without fuel, affecting the lives of millions of people for days.
“We know that there are many cases when both China and Russia have been inside the American system for several months, why not years. “Even they are probably inside the critical infrastructure systems even now that we are talking.” says Mr. Chaillan.
He says it is very likely that Washington’s geopolitical opponents have already deployed cyber tools within America’s systems. They can be activated at a crucial moment in the future.
“At the end of the day, this is really scary. “And strangely enough, we accept that.” says Mr. Chaillan.
Other experts say the impact of such cyber attacks, even frontal attacks, will however be limited by the geography and infrastructure sectors that will be affected.
“I think that the damage that can be caused will be large, but regional. There is a lot of overlap in many of these sectors. “So if there is an impact in a region, there is a level of flexibility in the system to deal with it.” says Jacob Galbreath, of NATO’s Center for Excellence in Cyber Defense Cooperation.
Some say that the superpowers do not engage in frontal cyber offensives because of the principle of safe mutual destruction, which applies not only to nuclear war but also to cyber warfare.
This precautionary principle rests on the notion that a cyber attack by one superpower on another would receive massive responses, leaving both countries devastated.
“They (the Russians) need to understand that our country will respond.” says Mr. Galbreath.
Estonia was the first to suffer a serious cyber attack by another state. In April 2007, hackers thought to be linked to the Kremlin attacked government websites, media and financial institutions. The attackers used so-called “botnets”, networks of compromised devices that are connected to the Internet.
Toomas Hendrik Ilves was then President of Estonia.
“Things have gotten a lot worse since then.” he says.
With the spread of internet technology, the number of devices connected to the network increased. The potential for successful hacker attacks also increased.
“There are, for example, half a million surveillance cameras in the city of London alone.” he says.
As computer technology is evolving at breakneck speed, superpowers can only speculate as to what cyber-offensive adversaries have at their disposal. But experts say the war in Ukraine may have provided a unique opportunity to see Russia’s true capabilities, revealing Moscow’s limitations not only in conventional warfare but also in cyber warfare.
“If you had asked me three months ago, I would have given another answer. But in these moments, they (Russia) need to commit more to defense; “They are not doing well.” says Mr. Galbreath.
Analysts say one of the reasons why Russia is not doing very well is because of the involvement of third parties in the conflict.
“Despite the size (of this conflict), it ‘s impressive how many people around the world are involved in favor of Ukraine, or against Russia. In this respect, the consequences for Russia have been devastating. “People around the world are against what the Russian military and government are doing in Ukraine.” says Mr. Galbreath.
Experts say this regional war will have global consequences and could change our worldview on power distribution, including cybernetics./VOA
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