Russian tanks enter Eastern Ukraine / Will they stop there?

But after a 56-minute war speech in which the Russian leader himself denied the existence of a country called Ukraine, few in Kiev had any doubt that tank convoys would sooner or later go beyond Ukraine’s Donbas region, and that Mr. Putin’s decision to recognize the independence of the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk was only the prelude to wider military action. In the friendship treaties that Mr. Putin signed with the separatist republics, Moscow is committed to protecting their borders.

Kremlin officials did not want to clarify on Tuesday where the borders of the separatist republics begin and end, or whether their territory covers the entire Donetsk and Luhansk region or just the territory they currently hold under military control, which in reality is less that half of the Donbas region. Asked by reporters in Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov avoided clarifying the issue. Asked if the port city of Mariupol, currently under the control of Ukrainian forces, was considered part of the new republics, he said: “I have nothing to add.”

Western diplomats and residents of Donetsk confirmed the appearance of Russian tanks during the early hours of Tuesday.

As the months-long geopolitical stalemate over Ukraine has thus passed into an even more dangerous phase, Western countries came together to publicly express their condemnation unanimously and several other Western governments ordered the removal of their diplomats from Kiev and relocation to Lviv. in Western Ukraine. The selection of the city of Lviv, which is located very close to the Polish border, reflects their concerns that it will not be long before Russian forces stationed along the Ukrainian border are given orders to move possibly towards the Ukrainian capital.

Australia became the latest country to relocate its mission, joining the United States, Britain and other countries that transferred their ambassadors and staff closer to the security provided by neighboring Poland.

Is the war unfolding?

Western intelligence officials also say that recognizing the separatist republics is only part of a larger war plan, which is now being unveiled under a scenario drawn up weeks ago. They say about two-thirds of the Russian forces gathered near Ukraine are already 50 kilometers from the border. They are deployed in battle formation and positioned to launch military operations. However, it is not yet clear whether the Kremlin has ordered a frontal offensive.

Addressing the country via television at 2 a.m., Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiyy tried to reassure Ukrainians that the country is well protected. He added that Ukraine has the right to defend itself against further Russian aggression.

“We are on our land, we are not afraid of anyone or anything.” declared Mr. Zelenskiyy.

With a solemn but challenging appearance, Mr. Zelenskiyy called on the international monitors of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which monitors in eastern Ukraine the implementation of the ceasefire reached in 2015 with the mediation of France and Germany, to continue their work and help to prevent provocations and further escalation.

The Ukrainian president also said he had called for an urgent meeting of the Normandy Format countries – Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia – to hold talks on this latest Moscow move in the Donbas region, and called on Western countries to stand by Ukraine. “It’s very important now to see who our true friend and partner is, and who will continue to ‘scare’ the Russian Federation with words alone.” said Mr. Zelenskiyy.

During a speech at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, the Ukrainian leader sharply criticized Western powers for doing so much more to discourage Russia from carrying out this act of aggression.

Leaders of Western countries were formulating a reaction to Russia on Tuesday and were coordinating their actions. EU officials say they still hope diplomacy will prevail and that Mr Putin can restrain himself and tighten sanctions. These hopes that diplomatic activity will work, however, are rapidly fading.

The European Union said that “Will react with sanctions against those involved in this illegal action.” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has accused Russia of fueling the conflict in eastern Ukraine and “Is trying to create a pretext” for a further offensive.

The fear among European leaders that the Russian president will order even greater military action in Ukraine is based in part on his almost one-hour full-blown speech, which began with a long passage with the Russian leader’s views on history. of Ukraine and how the West plundered Russian territory after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Justifying his decision to recognize the separatist republics, Mr Putin said Ukraine was an integral part of Russia’s history and said eastern Ukraine was ancient Russian territory. His version of history, permeated by the dissatisfaction he has expressed many times before, is being criticized as eccentric by affirmed historians.

Mr Putin’s speech, broadcast on all major Russian television stations, came after a meeting of the National Security Council in Moscow, which was also broadcast in full.

During the meeting, exponents of Moscow’s hard line called on him to recognize the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Some analysts noted that, judging by the clock held by one of the Kremlin aides, the meeting was not actually broadcast live, but that it took place many hours ago with a choreography intended to convince the Russian audience that Mr. Putin has the full support of the country’s top leaders and his advisers, while also demonstrating his masterful control of the rapidly changing geopolitical stalemate with the West.

Senior officials have emerged one after another to reinforce the Kremlin’s baseless allegations that Ukraine was preparing an offensive to retake the separatist republics. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told Mr Putin that Ukrainian forces were deploying to launch an attack.

Kiev has repeatedly denied the allegations.

During his speech, Mr. Putin accused the United States and NATO of “They shamelessly turned Ukraine into a war zone.” He also made the baseless accusation that Ukraine planned to produce nuclear weapons, which could be used to attack Russia.

The overall tone of the speech shocked many Western diplomats and independent analysts. German and French officials privately admitted they were shocked. Germany and France were conducting last-minute diplomatic efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine stalemate and hoped to reach a lasting agreement on a ceasefire and political settlement in eastern Ukraine. But it now appears that Mr. Putin has suddenly sabotaged this Franco-German effort, say diplomats from these countries.

Kremlin officials say they have no plans to launch a full-scale offensive against Ukraine and are still open to talks. “We remain open to diplomacy, for a diplomatic solution. However, we do not intend to allow another massacre in Donbas “, said on Tuesday the Russian ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia.

Ukrainian forces along the eastern front of the country have been given stern orders not to respond to mortars and artillery shelling, which have increased sharply over the past week, independent observers say. Ukrainian officials believe the clashes could be used as an excuse for greater military intervention by Russia./ VOA

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