[ad_1]
The recent comments of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, on a parallel European community (community) for countries waiting to join the European Union, are a classic renewal of the old idea of a continent composed of different rings of countries enjoying levels of diversity of EU integration, with the Eurozone at the absolute epicenter.
It is an idea that is unlikely to materialize as there is much opposition to it, not only outside the EU, but essentially within the union as well.
The real “vestibule” of the EU is, and will likely remain, the EU membership process of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine who have now formally applied to join the bloc, and it will be done. increasingly visible.
But while Macron’s idea of new European political architectures may be vague, he is entirely right about another seemingly controversial thing: it will take decades for a country like Ukraine (and consequently Georgia with Moldova) to join the EU.
This comes despite the heroic battle of the Ukrainian nation and the widespread sympathy it enjoys around the world, including the support of citizens in EU countries, who believe that one day it should become a member.
But the bitter truth is that: no country has entered the European Union based solely on emotions.
It takes years of arduous political and economic reforms, billions of euros are needed to rebuild the country and the will of the 27 EU members along the way – something that will not always be there.
For a country in the midst of war, with its economy and industrial base shattered and a bloodthirsty neighbor seeking to suppress its entire existence, this can be almost impossible. Even if a benevolent Democrat in the Kremlin suddenly appeared, which is unlikely to happen, it would not turn Kiev’s trip to Brussels from decade to year.
To get an idea of how slow this process will be, just look at the Western Balkans’s journey towards the EU.
Yes, geographical comparisons are usually unfair, and political, historical, and economic contexts vary widely, but there are many parallels here that simply cannot be ignored.
The most ardent argument for Ukraine’s rapid membership is the very heroic sacrifices that Ukrainians are making in resisting Russian invaders. They are fighting not only for their nation, but for everything that the West truly represents.
All this is true, but it was also true for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. They also experienced massacres, war crimes, crimes against humanity and displayed impressive stoicism and heroism to survive as a people and as a nation.
However, this has not helped them much in their efforts to join the EU, with Sarajevo and Pristina still awaiting the status of potential candidates.
One could say that this is due to the problematic situation in which the two countries are, with Kosovo still not recognizing a small part of EU member states and Bosnia, with its dysfunctional political structure.
Who from the Western Balkans is most welcome in the EU?
But what kind of Ukraine is really coming out of this war? Which Ukraine is actually applying to the EU?
The whole West supports the territorial integrity of the country, including Crimea and the Donbas, but how great are the chances now and in the months and years to come that the Government of Kiev will have political control over these regions?
The same questions can be asked of Moldova and Georgia regarding their separatist regions. And, if there are no clear answers to these questions, it is difficult to predict any real chance on EU membership, as Moscow will continue to use these occupied regions to link the troika with its spheres of influence.
But the comparisons do not end there. While there are significant problems in the Western Balkans, including corruption, the malfunctioning of the judiciary, and even the direct capture of the state (things that are also present in the trio of Eastern countries aspiring to join the EU), the truth is that Another reason why this region is not already in the EU is because many in the union are not particularly enthusiastic about their integration in the first place.
Less than a year ago, some EU member states questioned the use of the word “enlargement” in the statement of the recent Western Balkans summit.
Prior to the Russian occupation on February 24, any attempt to imply that countries such as Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine had a chance of one day joining the union was always rejected by some Western European countries.
Although there has been more solidarity in recent months from the European Union, it was quite clear in the discussions that took place between EU leaders in March in Versailles that those countries that were in favor of opening the gates to the troika, or at least for Ukraine, were the newest EU members in Central and Eastern Europe.
And, we have not yet touched on the issue of the progress of countries, which have been held hostage by other issues.
Here, too, we have an example of the Western Balkans – Northern Macedonia – undoubtedly one of the countries that has best met the EU requirements in recent years. Both France and Bulgaria have blocked the opening of negotiations on issues directly related to Skopje, Sofia, and enlargement to Paris in general.
Who can say that this will not happen with Ukraine? Just as Turkey is opposing Sweden and Finland’s application for NATO membership (and the Croatian president’s threat to do the same), any enlargement process presents a perfect opportunity to derive various benefits and concessions, for uses. underwear or elsewhere.
So when the European Commission comes out early next month with its views on EU applications to Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, expect some hesitation.
It may well be recommended to recommend candidate status, at least for Ukraine, but do not be surprised if it is conditional on further reforms and other tasks.
As the countries of the Western Balkans have learned, the Commission is often more optimistic and willing than the Council, where member states must obey and consensus is necessary.
In the end, candidate status may be more likely and acceptable to the 27 member states than an unconditional candidate status, as they meet in Brussels on 23-24 June to “evaluate” the Commission’s recommendation.
Shortly before this summit, they will host all the leaders of the Western Balkans in the Belgian capital.
The hope is that there will still be a green light for the start of EU membership talks with Albania and northern Macedonia.
So far, the signals are not very encouraging.
But to move forward with one region, or at least one country, Ukraine, but not with the enlargement of the Western Balkans, according to some EU officials, would send the wrong signals.
It may seem unfair to Kiev, but Brussels always finds ways to disappoint – just ask any official from the Western Balkans. And, Kiev may very well complain, rightly mentioning the lack of courage, will and geostrategic thinking by the EU and claiming that it is all unacceptable.
But, like the Western Balkans, they will realize that there are few other options available to them as they take their seats in the EU lobby./REL
top channel
[ad_2]
Source link