Why does Putin worry when Ukraine is not close to NATO membership?

Russia has said that NATO – the American-led military alliance that has the worst European crisis in decades – should never offer membership to Ukraine, a country that became independent when the Soviet Union disintegrated some 30 years ago.

Ukraine has long aspired to join NATO, but the alliance is reluctant to invite it to join, in part because of Ukraine’s official corruption, lack of progress in increasing defense, and lack of control over its international borders.

Putin’s demands go beyond the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, but this topic is central to his complaint that the West has made him lose patience, due to the alliance approaching Russia’s borders. He asserted that NATO enlargement years ago had increased the alliance’s security at the expense of Russia.

What stopped Putin from rushing?

The Russians are seeking legal guarantees that Ukraine will be denied NATO membership, knowing that NATO has a principle of not ruling out the possible membership of any European country – even Russia – but the alliance has no plans. to launch the process of Ukraine’s membership in the foreseeable future. NATO has cited the principle that all states should be free to choose who they want to align with.

So why is Moscow now raising the issue of relations between Ukraine and NATO? The answer to this question is complex.

Why is Putin worried about Ukraine’s possible membership in NATO?
The reason stated is that further NATO eastward expansion would pose a security threat to Russia. Washington and its allies reject this concern, arguing that no NATO country is threatening to use force against Russia.

Moreover, Putin wants to withdraw NATO’s current military presence in Eastern Europe, which includes a series of regular exercises in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which are countries of the former Soviet Union. In the Baltic states, however, there are no American troops that are stationed for a long time. There are currently about 100 troops serving in rotating tours in Lithuania and about 60 in Estonia and Latvia, the Pentagon has said.

Russian President Putin also opposes the alliance’s presence of defense missiles in Romania, a former Soviet satellite state. He also opposes a similar base being built in Poland, arguing that they could be turned into offensive weapons, capable of threatening Russia. US President Joe Biden this week approved the deployment of 2,700 additional US troops to Eastern Europe – 1,700 in Poland and 1,000 in Romania – plus another 300 in Germany.

Ukraine has deep historical and cultural ties to Russia, and Putin has consistently asserted that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people.” He has said that a large part of Ukraine’s territory has been a historical part of Russia and arbitrarily these parts were given to Ukraine by communist leaders in the time of the Soviet Union.

Putin’s actions, however, have served to strengthen Ukrainians’ sense of national identity. After Russia annexed the Ukrainian Peninsula of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine’s desire to move closer to the West and join NATO only grew.

Finally, Putin has more specifically described his concern for Ukraine. He has outlined a scenario in which Ukraine could use military force to retake Crimea or retake areas in eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

“Imagine Ukraine becoming a member of NATO and launching these military operations,” Putin said. “Should we then fight NATO?” “Has anyone thought about this?”

In fact, some in NATO have thought about the possibility of an expanded war with Russia inside Ukraine. This is a reminder of what NATO membership means – an attack on one member state is an attack on everyone, which in Ukraine’s theoretical case, if this country were to be attacked by Russia, would mean that there would be a legal commitment. from all NATO countries that should come to the defense of Kiev.

The chances of Ukraine joining NATO in the foreseeable future are extremely slim.

Although Ukraine has no bid for NATO membership, it has approached the alliance since 1997, when the NATO-Ukraine Charter was created, and has continued to cooperate with the alliance.

The heads of government of NATO member states publicly declared in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia – another state of the former Soviet Union – “will become members of NATO”. They did not say when or how this would happen, but the statement could be seen as an explanation for Moscow’s concern that Kiev would one day join the alliance.

On the other hand, the US and other NATO leaders, who signed the 2008 declaration on Ukraine and Georgia, decided to give these two countries what is known as the Membership Action Plan – which is a path leading to an eventual membership. Germany and France have strongly opposed Ukraine moving towards membership, and it was widely believed within NATO that Ukraine should first carry out major governmental reforms before becoming a candidate for membership.

This controversy seems to have never been resolved, which means that as long as NATO’s door is open, Ukraine will not join in the near future.

How is Putin putting pressure on Ukraine?
Moscow has said it has no plans to invade Ukraine, but in recent months has deployed troops and military equipment along Ukraine’s border and has indicated it will take action if its demands on Washington and NATO are not met. The Biden administration has said Russia is now capable of a wide range of actions, including large-scale occupation to take control of Kiev.

Putin has said that NATO has crossed borders not only by offering Ukraine weapons and military training, but also by stationing forces in other Eastern European countries, which he says are compromising Russian security.

It is also true that in the last decade there has been an increase in the US and NATO military presence in Eastern Europe, which has prompted the Russian annexation of Crimea and the incursion into eastern Ukraine in 2014. These Russian actions push NATO to double its focus on collective security. In September 2014, NATO leaders created a new Rapid Response Force, capable of deploying within days, and leaders reaffirmed their commitment to increase their defense spending.rel

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